Did India Stop Buying Russian Oil? The Economic Reality

Key Takeaways

• Did India Stop Buying Russian Oil?
• The Claim: U.S. President Donald Trump stated that India “committed” to stopping Russian oil imports in exchange for the removal of retaliatory tariffs.
• The Official Stance: Both New Delhi and Moscow have denied a formal ban, with India maintaining its policy of “commercial viability” and “energy security.”
• The Data: Russian oil imports have indeed hit a 38-month low in early 2026, but this is primarily driven by narrowing discounts and payment friction, not a political embargo.

In the volatile landscape of global energy markets, a recent statement by U.S. President Donald Trump has triggered a storm of speculation: Has India, the world’s third-largest oil importer, officially stopped buying Russian crude?

The viral claim suggests a geopolitical quid pro quo—that New Delhi agreed to halt Russian energy purchases in exchange for the lifting of aggressive U.S. tariffs. While the narrative is politically compelling, a deep dive into trade data and official diplomatic correspondence reveals a more nuanced reality. The verdict is Misleading. While import volumes have dropped significantly, this appears to be a strategic economic recalibration rather than a mandated political ban.

The Viral Claim: Trump’s “Tariff for Oil” Deal

The controversy began following a high-stakes trade negotiation between Washington and New Delhi in late January 2026. President Trump announced via social media that he had secured a “commitment” from India to cease the importation of Russian crude oil. In return, the U.S. administration promised to lift the 25% reciprocal tariffs that had been threatening key Indian export sectors like pharmaceuticals and textiles.

This statement immediately impacted global markets, causing a brief spike in Brent crude prices as traders anticipated the removal of a major buyer from the Russian market. The narrative framed the move as a definitive shift in India’s foreign policy, moving away from its “strategic autonomy” stance.

Official Stance: What New Delhi and Moscow Say

Despite the definitive nature of the claim from Washington, the official response from New Delhi has been one of careful diplomatic denial.

The Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) has reiterated that India’s energy procurement is guided solely by “energy security” and “national interest.” Spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal clarified that Indian Oil PSUs (Public Sector Undertakings) are not instructed by the government on where to buy, but rather how to buy—seeking the best price for the Indian consumer.

Simultaneously, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov denied knowledge of any such commitment during a press briefing in Moscow. “We have received no indication from our Indian partners that they intend to sever our energy partnership,” Lavrov stated, attributing the fluctuations in trade to “market mechanisms” rather than political coercion.

The Data: Why Imports Actually Dropped (It’s Economics)

If there is no official ban, why have imports plummeted? The answer lies in the harsh arithmetic of the oil market.

Data from energy cargo trackers Kpler and Vortexa indicates that India’s imports of Russian crude dropped to approximately 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in January 2026—a 38-month low. This is a stark contrast to the peak of nearly 2 million bpd seen in 2024-2025.

The primary driver is the evaporation of the “war discount.” In 2024, Indian refiners were buying Russian Urals crude at a discount of $10–$12 per barrel compared to the global benchmark, Brent. This deep discount absorbed the higher freight and insurance costs associated with shipping oil from Baltic ports to India.

By early 2026, that discount had narrowed significantly. With the discount shrinking to as low as $2–$4 per barrel, the economic incentive for Indian refiners has vanished. When factoring in the risk of sanctions, payment delays, and longer shipping times (40 days from Russia vs. 4 days from the Middle East), Russian oil is no longer the “cheapest barrel” on the market.

Comparative Analysis: The Vanishing Discount

Feature	Russian Urals (2024 Peak)	Russian Urals (Jan 2026)	Impact on Buyer Decision
Discount to Brent	$10 – $12 / bbl	$2 – $4 / bbl	Negative: Margins are too thin to justify risk.
Payment Friction	Moderate (Rupee/Dirham)	High (Strict Sanctions)	Negative: Delays in settling payments increase costs.
Shipping Time	~30-40 Days	~30-40 Days	Neutral: Remains a logistical disadvantage.
Market Share	~40% of India Imports	~18% of India Imports	Result: Refiners shifting back to Iraq/Saudi Arabia.

The Venezuela Alternative: Plan B?

As the Russian barrel loses its luster, Indian refiners are not simply returning to Middle Eastern dominance; they are diversifying. A significant development in 2026 is the “Venezuelan Pivot.”

Following the easing of specific U.S. sanctions on Caracas, private Indian refiners like Reliance Industries and Nayara Energy have begun testing Venezuelan heavy crude. This oil, specifically the Merey blend, is chemically similar to the heavy sour grades from the Middle East and Russia, making it a technically viable substitute for complex refineries.

However, this is not a seamless swap. Venezuelan infrastructure has degraded significantly, making supply reliability a concern. Furthermore, Venezuelan crude is “extra heavy,” requiring specific coking units that not all Indian PSU refineries possess. While it serves as a diversification strategy, it is currently a “Plan B” rather than a complete replacement for the volume Russia once provided.

Conclusion: Did India Stop Buying Russian Oil?

Verdict: Misleading.

While it is factually true that India has drastically reduced its intake of Russian oil in early 2026, characterizing this as a political “commitment” to stop buying is inaccurate based on available evidence.

The drop in imports is a result of commercial viability. The narrowing discount has made Russian oil economically unattractive compared to supplies from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and potentially Venezuela. India’s policy remains consistent: it will buy from wherever the oil is cheapest. If Russia were to deepen its discounts again, it is highly likely that Indian refiners would resume higher purchase volumes, regardless of geopolitical narratives.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Did India ban Russian oil?

No. There is no official notification or sanctions order from the Indian government banning the import of Russian crude oil. The reduction in imports is a commercial decision by refiners.

Why is India buying less Russian oil in 2026?

The primary reason is the reduction in price discounts. Russian oil is no longer significantly cheaper than other market options, and payment difficulties due to tighter Western sanctions have made the trade more complex and costly.

Is Venezuelan oil cheaper than Russian oil?

Currently, yes. Venezuelan heavy crude is trading at a competitive discount as the country seeks to regain market share. However, supply reliability and quality consistency remain challenges for Indian buyers compared to established Russian or Middle Eastern supply lines.

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